Chet Holmgren
2025–26
69 games · 1,997 minutes
NBA player comparison
Chet Holmgren vs. Deandre Ayton: 2025–26 season
Regular-season verdict
Chet Holmgren leads in impact for 2025–26
Chet Holmgren ranks ahead of Deandre Ayton in estimated impact while playing. This compares regular-season performance, not total contribution across the season.
Deandre Ayton
2025–26
72 games · 1,958 minutes
Impact comparison
Impact estimate is measured in points per 100 possessions above league average. Zero is average; higher is better. Impact Rate rank is a league place, not a 0–100 score: No. 1 is best.
+2.5LeadsImpact estimateEstimated points per 100 possessions above league average · higher is better-0.2
#14LeadsImpact Rate rankLeague place · No. 1 is best#308
+4.33LeadsEstimated defensive impactSelected-season lineup estimate · points per 100 possessions-1.10
+2.05LeadsEstimated offensive impactSelected-season lineup estimate · points per 100 possessions-0.06
1.0%Steal rate1.0%
10.6%LeadsTurnover rateLower is better; compare alongside offensive workload11.1%
21.9%Offensive usage16.7%
65.3%True shooting %67.6%Leads
8.6%LeadsAssist rateShare of teammates’ made shots assisted while on court4.5%
16.7%Rebound rateShare of available rebounds collected while on court17.2%Leads
69Games72
1,997Minutes1,958
Chet Holmgren's estimated impact per 100 possessions was +2.5, compared with -0.2 for Deandre Ayton. This compares their impact while playing, not their total contribution across the season. Both players are compared in the 2025–26 season using its published Impact Rate. A ranked comparison requires at least 450 minutes for each player.
Chet Holmgren: 69 games and 1,997 minutes. Deandre Ayton: 72 games and 1,958 minutes. Playing time matters when judging the whole season; the impact estimate above is a rate, not a season total.
Chet Holmgren ended a larger share of his team’s possessions, so the turnover rates are not an equal-workload comparison. Offensive usage measures the share of team plays a player ends with a shot, free throws, or a turnover while on the court—not every touch, pass, or act of playmaking. These rows provide context; they are not extra points added to the ranking.
Regular season only. Impact figures are estimates; small gaps are not exact. Playoffs, awards and titles do not determine the verdict.
Behind the estimate
Why the model rates them this way
The model starts with each player’s recorded individual stats, then adjusts that estimate using lineup results. The first two rows add up to the final estimate. All figures are points per 100 possessions.
Chet HolmgrenMetricDeandre Ayton
+1.54LeadsFrom recorded individual stats+0.19
+0.93LeadsAdjustment from recent lineup results-0.41
+2.48LeadsFinal estimated impact-0.22
Lineup evidence: Chet Holmgren — 3 seasons; Deandre Ayton — 3 seasons. This adjustment is not necessarily based on the selected season alone.
Offensive and defensive lineup estimates for the selected season
These selected-season estimates account for who played alongside and against each player. Positive means better than average; a positive defensive figure means fewer points allowed. They are separate estimates—not additional points added to the calculation above. They do not measure how much individual teammates improved.
Chet HolmgrenMetricDeandre Ayton
+2.05LeadsAdjusted offensive impact-0.06
+4.33LeadsAdjusted defensive impact-1.10
What this does not establish: these figures do not prove that either player made his teammates shoot better. A verified teammate-shooting comparison is unavailable for this selected season. A small difference in the estimates is not a decisive basketball distinction.
Full comparison · 2025–26 season
Understand the numbers
Start with impact, then compare playing time and skills. Team results add context. These are not categories to tally into a winner.
1 · Ranking evidence
Impact: who ranks higher, and why?
The impact estimate compares performance while playing, not total contribution over the season. The individual-stat estimate plus the lineup adjustment gives the final estimate.
| Metric | Chet Holmgren | Deandre Ayton |
|---|---|---|
| Impact estimateEstimated points per 100 possessions above league average · higher is better | +2.5Better result for this metric. | -0.2 |
| Impact Rate rankLeague place · No. 1 is best | #14Better result for this metric. | #308 |
| From recorded individual stats | +1.54Better result for this metric. | +0.19 |
| Adjustment from recent lineup results | +0.93Better result for this metric. | -0.41 |
Chet Holmgren: 3 seasons of lineup evidence. Deandre Ayton: 3 seasons of lineup evidence. The adjustment is not necessarily based on this season alone.
Show more stats: Impact
| Metric | Chet Holmgren | Deandre Ayton |
|---|---|---|
| Final estimated impact | +2.48Better result for this metric. | -0.22 |
2 · Playing time and responsibility
How much did each player take on?
Read games and minutes alongside impact. Offensive usage is the share of team plays a player ends with a shot, free throws, or a turnover while on court. More usage is not automatically better.
| Metric | Chet Holmgren | Deandre Ayton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 69 | 72 |
| Minutes | 1,997 | 1,958 |
| Offensive usage | 21.9% | 16.7% |
3 · Individual skills
Where does each player have an advantage?
These figures describe the selected regular seasons. They provide context, not extra points added to the verdict. Green marks the better result for a metric, including lower turnover rates. Workload and shot-selection measures stay neutral. These rows are not votes toward the ranking.
Shooting
True shooting includes two-pointers, three-pointers, and free throws.
| Metric | Chet Holmgren | Deandre Ayton |
|---|---|---|
| True shooting percentage | 65.3% | 67.6%Better result for this metric. |
Show more stats: Shooting
| Metric | Chet Holmgren | Deandre Ayton |
|---|---|---|
| Field-goal percentage | 55.7% | 67.1%Better result for this metric. |
| Three-point percentage | 36.2% | Unavailable |
| Free-throw percentage | 79.2%Better result for this metric. | 64.5% |
| Three-point attempt rateShare of field-goal attempts taken from three; describes shot selection, not quality | 31.2% | 0.0% |
Passing
Assist rate is the share of teammates’ made shots assisted while the player is on court. Read turnovers alongside offensive workload; lower turnover rate is generally better.
| Metric | Chet Holmgren | Deandre Ayton |
|---|---|---|
| Assist rateShare of teammates’ made shots assisted while on court | 8.6%Better result for this metric. | 4.5% |
| Assists per game | 1.7Better result for this metric. | 0.8 |
Show more stats: Passing
| Metric | Chet Holmgren | Deandre Ayton |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover rateLower is better; compare alongside offensive workload | 10.6%Better result for this metric. | 11.1% |
Rebounding
Rebound rate is the share of available rebounds collected while on court.
| Metric | Chet Holmgren | Deandre Ayton |
|---|---|---|
| Rebound rateShare of available rebounds collected while on court | 16.7% | 17.2%Better result for this metric. |
| Rebounds per game | 8.9Better result for this metric. | 8.0 |
Defense
Steals and blocks describe only part of defense. They do not capture every stop, rotation, or matchup.
| Metric | Chet Holmgren | Deandre Ayton |
|---|---|---|
| Steal rate | 1.0% | 1.0% |
Show more stats: Defense
| Metric | Chet Holmgren | Deandre Ayton |
|---|---|---|
| Block rateShare of opponents’ two-point attempts blocked while on court | 6.4%Better result for this metric. | 3.3% |
Scoring
Points per game describe scoring volume, not overall impact.
| Metric | Chet Holmgren | Deandre Ayton |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.1Better result for this metric. | 12.5 |
4 · Team context, not ranking inputs
What happened with and without them?
A verified with/without comparison is unavailable for this scope. We do not substitute another season’s observations.
Selected-season adjusted lineup estimates
These account for who played alongside and against each player. Positive defense means fewer points allowed. They are separate from the observed results and are not additional points added to the model calculation.
| Metric | Chet Holmgren | Deandre Ayton |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted offensive impact | +2.05Better result for this metric. | -0.06 |
| Adjusted defensive impact | +4.33Better result for this metric. | -1.10 |
Four separate questions
Impact, winning, playoffs, and awards
These are different ways to understand a career. Only Regular Season Impact determines the hussEyquation verdict. The other three sections add basketball context without adding points or changing the rank.
Career to date. At least one player is active. Every total below stops after the latest completed season in this data; nothing is projected.
Regular Season Impact
Chet Holmgren leads in impact for 2025–26.
Chet HolmgrenMetricDeandre Ayton
+2.5LeadsImpact estimateEstimated points per 100 possessions above league average · higher is better-0.2
#14LeadsImpact Rate rankLeague place · No. 1 is best#308
This is the ranking result. It uses regular-season impact only. Team records, playoffs, and awards do not change it.
Team Success
The advantages are split across the available measures.
Chet HolmgrenMetricDeandre Ayton
189Listed-team regular-season wins323Leads
76.8%LeadsListed-team winning percentage50.7%
350-win team seasons3
2Leads60-win team seasons1
3Playoff team seasons4Leads
Context only. Not included in Career Impact Rank. Final records for every listed team-season. A traded season can include more than one team.
Playoff Résumé
The advantages are split across the available measures.
Chet HolmgrenMetricDeandre Ayton
3Playoff appearances4Leads
48Playoff games55Leads
33LeadsTeam playoff wins31
1Finals appearances1
1LeadsChampionships0
Context only. Not included in Career Impact Rank. Team playoff results count only seasons when the player appeared in a playoff game.
Awards
No recorded measure separates these careers.
Chet HolmgrenMetricDeandre Ayton
1All-StarNot available
0MVPNot available
1All-NBANot available
1All-DefenseNot available
0DPOYNot available
0Rookie of the YearNot available
Context only. Not included in Career Impact Rank. Major regular-season honors are recognition, not inputs to the impact ranking.
How each context field is counted
- Listed-team regular-season wins
- The sum of each listed team's final wins in every season the player represented that team.
- Listed-team winning percentage
- Those team wins divided by those teams' total regular-season games.
- 50- and 60-win team seasons
- Listed team-seasons that finished with at least 50 or 60 wins. Shortened seasons are not projected to 82 games.
- Team seasons reaching playoffs
- Listed team-seasons in which that team qualified for the playoffs.
- Playoff appearances and games
- Postseasons and games in which the player appeared.
- Team playoff wins
- Team wins from those postseasons. They describe team results, not individual credit.
- Finals appearances and championships
- Seasons when the player appeared in the playoffs for the finalist or champion.
- Awards
- Recorded NBA selections and major regular-season honors. A zero means the source records none; Not available means the source field is missing.
Source and scope Basketball Reference, NBA seasons 1950–51 through 2025–26, accessed 2026-10-09. Active-career totals are results to date through the latest completed season in the source.
Selected seasons
Box impact
Both bars show the same NBA season. Missing or unqualified data does not establish a winner.
Chet HolmgrenDeandre Ayton
Estimated points per 100 possessions above that season's league average