hussEyquation
Last updated Jul 25, 2026

Research preview · prospective tracking next

NBA Player Rankings Right Now

Who is playing at the highest level now—and what should we expect over the next 20 or 40 games?

546 players154,310 player-games tested2020–21–2025–26 research windowNo lineup data yet

NBA Player Pulse

What matters right now

The strongest forecasts, meaningful weekly movement, and players whose expected roles are expanding.

Best now

Top 20-game forecasts

  1. Nikola Jokić#1

    Projected #1 over the next 20 appearances; likely range #1–#5.

  2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander#2

    Projected #2 over the next 20 appearances; likely range #2–#11.

  3. Luka Dončić#3

    Projected #3 over the next 20 appearances; likely range #2–#11.

  4. Giannis Antetokounmpo#4

    Projected #4 over the next 20 appearances; likely range #2–#15.

  5. Victor Wembanyama#5

    Projected #5 over the next 20 appearances; likely range #3–#16.

Trending up

Biggest meaningful risers

  1. E.J. Liddell↑ 116

    Ability forecast rose 2.5 points this week.

  2. Bez Mbeng↑ 117

    Ability forecast rose 2.4 points this week. Recent production is above his season level.

  3. Joan Beringer↑ 126

    Ability forecast rose 1.8 points this week. Recent production is above his season level.

  4. Terrence Shannon Jr.↑ 88

    Ability forecast rose 1.8 points this week. Recent production is above his season level.

  5. Adou Thiero↑ 20

    Ability forecast rose 1.4 points this week. Recent production is above his season level.

Trending down

Decline watch

  1. Alijah Martin↓ 118

    Ability forecast fell 2.0 points this week. Recent production is below his season level.

  2. Leaky Black↓ 70

    Ability forecast fell 0.9 points this week. Recent production is below his season level.

  3. Keaton Wallace↓ 99

    Ability forecast fell 0.9 points this week. Recent production is below his season level.

  4. Yuki Kawamura↓ 91

    Ability forecast fell 0.8 points this week. Recent production is below his season level.

  5. Chaz Lanier↓ 20

    Ability forecast fell 0.8 points this week. Recent production is below his season level.

Fantasy watch

Breakout opportunity

  1. Rayan Rupert+7.5 MPG

    Projected for 24.2 MPG, 7.5 more than his season average.

  2. Will Riley+6.6 MPG

    Projected for 28.7 MPG, 6.6 more than his season average.

  3. Leonard Miller+6.0 MPG

    Projected for 21.5 MPG, 6.0 more than his season average.

  4. Taelon Peter+5.8 MPG

    Projected for 18.8 MPG, 5.8 more than his season average.

  5. Pete Nance+5.8 MPG

    Projected for 21.5 MPG, 5.8 more than his season average.

Movement compares the latest completed week. Opportunity compares projected MPG with each player's season average.

Current Ability

Projected next 20 games

Rank shows the point estimate. The range shows where the player landed in 68% of held-out simulations.

Forecast error1.97

Average miss in the locked 2025–26 test.

Better than season to date21.2%

The same future games, forecast from the same dates.

Rank agreement0.67

1.00 would reproduce the future player order perfectly.

Expected-minutes error3.03

Average minutes-per-game miss over the future window.

506 players shown · ranked against all 546

Default hides players under 10 games · arrows require 5+ ranks and 0.5+ ability points

RankPlayerTeamLikely rank rangeExpected MPG2025–26 gamesAge
#1Nikola JokićDEN#1–#534.66530
#2Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC#2–#1133.76827
#3Luka DončićLAL#2–#1136.46426
#4Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL#2–#1529.63631
#5Victor WembanyamaSAS#3–#1630.56422
#6Joel EmbiidPHI#5–#4232.43831
#7Kawhi LeonardLAC#6–#4231.36534
#8Stephen CurryGSW#10–#7430.54337
#9Donovan MitchellCLE#10–#7633.37029
#10Jayson TatumBOS#10–#8433.01627
#11Ty JeromeMEM#11–#8422.41528
#12Cade CunninghamDET#11–#9534.26424
#13LaMelo BallCHA#11–#10130.67224
#14Jimmy Butler IIIGSW#11–#8929.13834
#15Anthony EdwardsMIN#12–#9736.06124
#16Jamal MurrayDEN#10–#9236.17528
#17Tyrese MaxeyPHI#13–#11038.87025
#18LeBron JamesLAL#13–#11132.26041
#19Kevin DurantHOU#15–#11335.77837
#20Jalen JohnsonATL#16–#12235.37224
#21Alperen SengunHOU#16–#12233.87223
#22Zion WilliamsonNOP#16–#11630.36225
#23Scottie BarnesTOR#16–#12833.68024
#24Anthony DavisDAL#17–#13030.92032
#25Jalen BrunsonNYK#18–#14835.27429
#26Josh GiddeyCHI#19–#13733.05423
#27James HardenCLE#19–#14233.97036
#28Evan MobleyCLE#19–#14832.06524
#29Domantas SabonisSAC#20–#14929.41929
#30David Jones GarcíaSAS#22–#1609.61124
#31Jalen DurenDET#20–#15030.97022
#32Karl-Anthony TownsNYK#22–#16031.07530
#33Kristaps PorziņģisGSW#22–#17925.43230
#34Devin BookerPHX#23–#17334.06429
#35Chet HolmgrenOKC#22–#17229.46923
#36Trey Murphy IIINOP#23–#15836.26625
#37Cam SpencerMEM#23–#18024.97225
#38Deni AvdijaPOR#25–#18834.06625
#39Amen ThompsonHOU#28–#17438.07923
#40Paul Reed↑ 20DET#26–#19517.56526
#41Jarrett AllenCLE#25–#19229.15627
#42Lauri MarkkanenUTA#24–#19832.44228
#43Bam AdebayoMIA#28–#20133.57328
#44Jalen WilliamsOKC#27–#18428.93324
#45Kon KnueppelCHA#29–#18933.78120
#46Trae YoungWAS#29–#20227.41527
#47De'Aaron FoxSAS#32–#22031.27228
#48Jaylen BrownBOS#30–#20034.87129
#49Cooper FlaggDAL#33–#21235.27019
#50Austin ReavesLAL#32–#21134.45127

How to read it

Current talent and expected role stay separate.

The ranking asks how well a player is likely to perform when he plays. Expected MPG asks how much his team is likely to use him.

01

Recent games matter more

Older games fade gradually. Validation chose a 240-day half-life, so a short hot streak cannot overwhelm a player's established level.

02

History and age stabilize the answer

The model blends the current season with longer-term performance and the normal way players change as they age.

03

Context had to earn its place

Opponent, rest, team-change, and injury-return inputs were tested. They did not improve ability forecasts, so they were not forced into the score.

04

Lineup evidence comes later

This version intentionally excludes teammate and opponent lineup effects. Those will be tested only after the frozen model passes prospective checkpoints.

Registered before the season.

The formula and pass/fail rules are locked. During 2026–27, weekly predictions will be saved permanently and graded after each player's next 20 and 40 appearances.

View the live season ranking →
Weekly snapshots0

Begins when 2026–27 games are available.

Next 20 checkpointpending

0 forecasts graded

Next 40 checkpointpending

0 forecasts graded

Lineup evidencelocked out

It stays out until both forward-looking checkpoints pass.

Research preview—not the live Impact Rate.