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Box Forecast research preview · live cohorts forthcoming

NBA Player Box Forecasts

Experimental projections of context-neutral box production over each player's next 20 or 40 regular-season appearances. Historical evidence is exploratory; no 2026–27 live cohort has been graded.

View the full forecast ranking ↓

Forecasts prepared Jul 25, 2026, using games through Apr 13, 2026. These forecast dates are separate from the published impact rankings.

546 players154,310 historical player-games in the research set2020–21–2025–26 research windowNo lineup data yet

NBA Player Pulse

What the box forecast sees now

The strongest box forecasts, changes between dated research snapshots, and players whose expected roles are expanding.

Best now

Top 20-appearance forecasts

  1. Nikola Jokić#1

    Projected #1 over the next 20 appearances; likely range #1–#5.

  2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander#2

    Projected #2 over the next 20 appearances; likely range #2–#11.

  3. Luka Dončić#3

    Projected #3 over the next 20 appearances; likely range #2–#11.

  4. Giannis Antetokounmpo#4

    Projected #4 over the next 20 appearances; likely range #2–#15.

  5. Victor Wembanyama#5

    Projected #5 over the next 20 appearances; likely range #3–#16.

Trending up

Biggest meaningful risers

  1. E.J. Liddell↑ 116

    Ability forecast rose 2.5 points between Apr 5, 2026 and Apr 13, 2026.

  2. Bez Mbeng↑ 117

    Ability forecast rose 2.4 points between Apr 5, 2026 and Apr 13, 2026. Recent production is above his season level.

  3. Joan Beringer↑ 126

    Ability forecast rose 1.8 points between Apr 5, 2026 and Apr 13, 2026. Recent production is above his season level.

  4. Terrence Shannon Jr.↑ 88

    Ability forecast rose 1.8 points between Apr 5, 2026 and Apr 13, 2026. Recent production is above his season level.

  5. Adou Thiero↑ 20

    Ability forecast rose 1.4 points between Apr 5, 2026 and Apr 13, 2026. Recent production is above his season level.

Trending down

Decline watch

  1. Alijah Martin↓ 118

    Ability forecast fell 2.0 points between Apr 5, 2026 and Apr 13, 2026. Recent production is below his season level.

  2. Leaky Black↓ 70

    Ability forecast fell 0.9 points between Apr 5, 2026 and Apr 13, 2026. Recent production is below his season level.

  3. Keaton Wallace↓ 99

    Ability forecast fell 0.9 points between Apr 5, 2026 and Apr 13, 2026. Recent production is below his season level.

  4. Yuki Kawamura↓ 91

    Ability forecast fell 0.8 points between Apr 5, 2026 and Apr 13, 2026. Recent production is below his season level.

  5. Chaz Lanier↓ 20

    Ability forecast fell 0.8 points between Apr 5, 2026 and Apr 13, 2026. Recent production is below his season level.

Fantasy watch

Breakout opportunity

  1. Rayan Rupert+7.5 MPG

    Projected for 24.2 MPG, 7.5 more than his season average.

  2. Will Riley+6.6 MPG

    Projected for 28.7 MPG, 6.6 more than his season average.

  3. Leonard Miller+6.0 MPG

    Projected for 21.5 MPG, 6.0 more than his season average.

  4. Taelon Peter+5.8 MPG

    Projected for 18.8 MPG, 5.8 more than his season average.

  5. Pete Nance+5.8 MPG

    Projected for 21.5 MPG, 5.8 more than his season average.

Movement compares the latest completed week. Opportunity compares projected MPG with each player's season average.

Box Forecast

Projected box production over the next 20 appearances

Box Forecast rank shows the point estimate. The range comes from exploratory historical simulation error; live coverage is not yet known.

Historical evidenceExploratory

Targets, same-date baselines, and limitations are being documented.

2026–27 live snapshots0

The opening-night cohort has not begun.

Next 20 appearancespending

No live forecasts graded.

Next 40 appearancespending

No live forecasts graded.

506 players shown · ranked against all 546

Default hides players under 10 games · arrows require 5+ ranks and 0.5+ ability points

Swipe for more forecast stats →

#1Nikola JokićDEN#1#1–#534.66530
#2Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC#2#2–#1133.76827
#3Luka DončićLAL#6#2–#1136.46426
#4Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL#4#2–#1529.63631
#5Victor WembanyamaSAS#5#3–#1630.56422
#6Joel EmbiidPHI#12#5–#4232.43831
#7Kawhi LeonardLAC#3#6–#4231.36534
#8Stephen CurryGSW#7#10–#7430.54337
#9Donovan MitchellCLE#9#10–#7633.37029
#10Jayson TatumBOS#15#10–#8433.01627
#11Ty JeromeMEM—#11–#8422.41528
#12Cade CunninghamDET#11#11–#9534.26424
#13LaMelo BallCHA#19#11–#10130.67224
#14Jimmy Butler IIIGSW#8#11–#8929.13834
#15Anthony EdwardsMIN#25#12–#9736.06124
#16Jamal MurrayDEN#16#10–#9236.17528
#17Tyrese MaxeyPHI#10#13–#11038.87025
#18LeBron JamesLAL#72#13–#11132.26041
#19Kevin DurantHOU#18#15–#11335.77837
#20Jalen JohnsonATL#27#16–#12235.37224
#21Alperen SengunHOU#20#16–#12233.87223
#22Zion WilliamsonNOP#29#16–#11630.36225
#23Scottie BarnesTOR#22#16–#12833.68024
#24Anthony DavisDAL#55#17–#13030.92032
#25Jalen BrunsonNYK#39#18–#14835.27429
#26Josh GiddeyCHI#42#19–#13733.05423
#27James HardenCLE#45#19–#14233.97036
#28Evan MobleyCLE#38#19–#14832.06524
#29Domantas SabonisSAC#87#20–#14929.41929
#30David Jones GarcíaSAS—#22–#1609.61124
#31Jalen DurenDET#32#20–#15030.97022
#32Karl-Anthony TownsNYK#23#22–#16031.07530
#33Kristaps PorziņģisGSW#62#22–#17925.43230
#34Devin BookerPHX#26#23–#17334.06429
#35Chet HolmgrenOKC#14#22–#17229.46923
#36Trey Murphy IIINOP#52#23–#15836.26625
#37Cam SpencerMEM#56#23–#18024.97225
#38Deni AvdijaPOR#30#25–#18834.06625
#39Amen ThompsonHOU#35#28–#17438.07923
#40Paul Reed↑ 20DET#57#26–#19517.56526
#41Jarrett AllenCLE#33#25–#19229.15627
#42Lauri MarkkanenUTA#17#24–#19832.44228
#43Bam AdebayoMIA#31#28–#20133.57328
#44Jalen WilliamsOKC#120#27–#18428.93324
#45Kon KnueppelCHA#40#29–#18933.78120
#46Trae YoungWAS—#29–#20227.41527
#47De'Aaron FoxSAS#92#32–#22031.27228
#48Jaylen BrownBOS#75#30–#20034.87129
#49Cooper FlaggDAL#108#33–#21235.27019
#50Austin ReavesLAL#50#32–#21134.45127

How to read it

Projected box production and expected role stay separate.

The ranking forecasts context-neutral box production when a player plays. Expected MPG asks how much his team is likely to use him.

01

Recent games matter more

Exploratory historical tuning selected a 240-day half-life. The live cohorts will test whether that choice holds up.

02

History and age stabilize the answer

The model blends the current season with longer-term performance and the normal way players change as they age.

03

Context had to earn its place

In exploratory historical comparisons, opponent, rest, team-change, and injury-return inputs did not improve the selected error score. They remain outside the live candidate.

04

Lineup evidence comes later

This version excludes teammate and opponent lineup effects. Those inputs can be tested only after the live 20- and 40-appearance checkpoints.

Live cohorts are registered and forthcoming.

The 20- and 40-appearance formula and scoring rules were frozen before 2026–27. No live snapshot has been graded.

Read the public protocol →
Weekly snapshots0

Begins when 2026–27 games are available.

Early read5 appearances

Descriptive only; not a pass/fail gate.

Next 20 checkpointpending

0 forecasts graded

Next 40 checkpointpending

0 forecasts graded

Research preview—not the live Impact Rate.