Jayson Tatum
2025–26
NBA player comparison
Jayson Tatum vs. Jimmy Butler: 2025–26 season
Regular-season verdict
Jimmy Butler has the higher model estimate for the 2025–26 season
This is a model estimate for the selected season. Its lineup adjustment also draws on earlier seasons; it is not a measurement of this season’s teammate improvement.
Jimmy Butler
2025–26
Impact comparison
+2.3Season impactEstimated points per 100 possessions above that season's league average+3.0Leads
#15Season impact rank#8Leads
+0.62Estimated defensive impactSelected-season lineup estimate · points per 100 possessions+1.89Leads
+1.31Estimated offensive impactSelected-season lineup estimate · points per 100 possessions+2.94Leads
2.1%Steal rate2.3%Leads
10.8%Turnover rateLower is better; compare alongside offensive workload9.3%Leads
30.0%Offensive usage23.3%
54.1%True shooting %64.6%Leads
25.1%LeadsAssist rateShare of teammates’ made shots assisted while on court24.3%
16.8%LeadsRebound rateShare of available rebounds collected while on court10.0%
16Games38
522Minutes1,182
Jimmy Butler's estimated impact per 100 possessions was +3.0, compared with +2.3 for Jayson Tatum. This compares their impact while playing, not their total contribution across the season. Both players are compared in the 2025–26 season using its published Impact Rate. A ranked comparison requires at least 450 minutes for each player.
Jayson Tatum: 16 games and 522 minutes. Jimmy Butler: 38 games and 1,182 minutes. Playing time matters when judging the whole season; the impact estimate above is a rate, not a season total.
Jayson Tatum ended a larger share of his team’s possessions, so the turnover rates are not an equal-workload comparison. Offensive usage measures the share of team plays a player ends with a shot, free throws, or a turnover while on the court—not every touch, pass, or act of playmaking. These rows provide context; they are not extra points added to the ranking.
Regular season only. Impact figures are estimates; small gaps are not exact. Playoffs, awards and titles do not determine the verdict.
Behind the estimate
Why the model rates them this way
The model starts with each player’s recorded individual stats, then adjusts that estimate using lineup results. The first two rows add up to the final estimate. All figures are points per 100 possessions.
Jayson TatumMetricJimmy Butler
+2.03From recorded individual stats+2.84Leads
+0.24LeadsAdjustment from recent lineup results+0.20
+2.27Final estimated impact+3.04Leads
Lineup evidence: Jayson Tatum — 3 seasons; Jimmy Butler — 3 seasons. This adjustment is not necessarily based on the selected season alone.
Offensive and defensive lineup estimates for the selected season
These selected-season estimates account for who played alongside and against each player. Positive means better than average; a positive defensive figure means fewer points allowed. They are separate estimates—not additional points added to the calculation above. They do not measure how much individual teammates improved.
Jayson TatumMetricJimmy Butler
+1.31Adjusted offensive impact+2.94Leads
+0.62Adjusted defensive impact+1.89Leads
What this does not establish: these figures do not prove that either player made his teammates shoot better. A verified teammate-shooting comparison is unavailable for this selected season. A small difference in the estimates is not a decisive basketball distinction.
Full comparison · 2025–26 season
Understand the numbers
Start with impact, then compare playing time and skills. Team results add context. These are not categories to tally into a winner.
1 · Ranking evidence
Impact: who ranks higher, and why?
The impact estimate compares performance while playing, not total contribution over the season. The individual-stat estimate plus the lineup adjustment gives the final estimate.
| Metric | Jayson Tatum | Jimmy Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Season impactEstimated points per 100 possessions above that season's league average | +2.3 | +3.0Better result for this metric. |
| Season impact rank | #15 | #8Better result for this metric. |
| From recorded individual stats | +2.03 | +2.84Better result for this metric. |
| Adjustment from recent lineup results | +0.24Better result for this metric. | +0.20 |
Jayson Tatum: 3 seasons of lineup evidence. Jimmy Butler: 3 seasons of lineup evidence. The adjustment is not necessarily based on this season alone.
Show more stats: Impact
| Metric | Jayson Tatum | Jimmy Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Final estimated impact | +2.27 | +3.04Better result for this metric. |
2 · Playing time and responsibility
How much did each player take on?
Read games and minutes alongside impact. Offensive usage is the share of team plays a player ends with a shot, free throws, or a turnover while on court. More usage is not automatically better.
| Metric | Jayson Tatum | Jimmy Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 16 | 38 |
| Minutes | 522 | 1,182 |
| Offensive usage | 30.0% | 23.3% |
3 · Individual skills
Where does each player have an advantage?
These figures describe the selected regular seasons. They provide context, not extra points added to the verdict. Green marks the better result for a metric, including lower turnover rates. Workload and shot-selection measures stay neutral. These rows are not votes toward the ranking.
Shooting
True shooting includes two-pointers, three-pointers, and free throws.
| Metric | Jayson Tatum | Jimmy Butler |
|---|---|---|
| True shooting percentage | 54.1% | 64.6%Better result for this metric. |
Show more stats: Shooting
| Metric | Jayson Tatum | Jimmy Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Field-goal percentage | 41.1% | 51.9%Better result for this metric. |
| Three-point percentage | 32.9% | 37.6%Better result for this metric. |
| Free-throw percentage | 82.3% | 86.4%Better result for this metric. |
| Three-point attempt rateShare of field-goal attempts taken from three; describes shot selection, not quality | 49.8% | 18.4% |
Passing
Assist rate is the share of teammates’ made shots assisted while the player is on court. Read turnovers alongside offensive workload; lower turnover rate is generally better.
| Metric | Jayson Tatum | Jimmy Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Assist rateShare of teammates’ made shots assisted while on court | 25.1%Better result for this metric. | 24.3% |
| Assists per game | 5.3Better result for this metric. | 4.9 |
Show more stats: Passing
| Metric | Jayson Tatum | Jimmy Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover rateLower is better; compare alongside offensive workload | 10.8% | 9.3%Better result for this metric. |
Rebounding
Rebound rate is the share of available rebounds collected while on court.
| Metric | Jayson Tatum | Jimmy Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Rebound rateShare of available rebounds collected while on court | 16.8%Better result for this metric. | 10.0% |
| Rebounds per game | 10.0Better result for this metric. | 5.6 |
Defense
Steals and blocks describe only part of defense. They do not capture every stop, rotation, or matchup.
| Metric | Jayson Tatum | Jimmy Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Steal rate | 2.1% | 2.3%Better result for this metric. |
Show more stats: Defense
| Metric | Jayson Tatum | Jimmy Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Block rateShare of opponents’ two-point attempts blocked while on court | 0.6% | 0.6% |
Scoring
Points per game describe scoring volume, not overall impact.
| Metric | Jayson Tatum | Jimmy Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.8Better result for this metric. | 20.0 |
4 · Team context, not ranking inputs
What happened with and without them?
A verified with/without comparison is unavailable for this scope. We do not substitute another season’s observations.
Selected-season adjusted lineup estimates
These account for who played alongside and against each player. Positive defense means fewer points allowed. They are separate from the observed results and are not additional points added to the model calculation.
| Metric | Jayson Tatum | Jimmy Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted offensive impact | +1.31 | +2.94Better result for this metric. |
| Adjusted defensive impact | +0.62 | +1.89Better result for this metric. |
Four separate questions
Impact, winning, playoffs, and awards
These are different ways to understand a career. Only Regular Season Impact determines the hussEyquation verdict. The other three sections add basketball context without adding points or changing the rank.
Career to date. At least one player is active. Every total below stops after the latest completed season in this data; nothing is projected.
Regular Season Impact
Jimmy Butler has the higher model estimate for the 2025–26 season.
Jayson TatumMetricJimmy Butler
+2.3Season impactEstimated points per 100 possessions above that season's league average+3.0Leads
#15Season impact rank#8Leads
This is the ranking result. It uses regular-season impact only. Team records, playoffs, and awards do not change it.
Team Success
The advantages are split across the available measures.
Jayson TatumMetricJimmy Butler
477Listed-team regular-season wins759Leads
66.4%LeadsListed-team winning percentage55.8%
6Leads50-win team seasons4
2Leads60-win team seasons0
9Playoff team seasons14Leads
Context only. Not included in Career Impact Rank. Final records for every listed team-season. A traded season can include more than one team.
Playoff Résumé
The advantages are split across the available measures.
Jayson TatumMetricJimmy Butler
9Playoff appearances12Leads
127Playoff games130Leads
77LeadsTeam playoff wins67
2Finals appearances2
1LeadsChampionships0
Context only. Not included in Career Impact Rank. Team playoff results count only seasons when the player appeared in a playoff game.
Awards
Jimmy Butler leads every available measure below.
Jayson TatumMetricJimmy Butler
6All-Star6
0MVP0
5All-NBA5
0All-Defense5Leads
0DPOY0
0Rookie of the Year0
Context only. Not included in Career Impact Rank. Major regular-season honors are recognition, not inputs to the impact ranking.
How each context field is counted
- Listed-team regular-season wins
- The sum of each listed team's final wins in every season the player represented that team.
- Listed-team winning percentage
- Those team wins divided by those teams' total regular-season games.
- 50- and 60-win team seasons
- Listed team-seasons that finished with at least 50 or 60 wins. Shortened seasons are not projected to 82 games.
- Team seasons reaching playoffs
- Listed team-seasons in which that team qualified for the playoffs.
- Playoff appearances and games
- Postseasons and games in which the player appeared.
- Team playoff wins
- Team wins from those postseasons. They describe team results, not individual credit.
- Finals appearances and championships
- Seasons when the player appeared in the playoffs for the finalist or champion.
- Awards
- Recorded NBA selections and major regular-season honors. A zero means the source records none; Not available means the source field is missing.
Source and scope Basketball Reference, NBA seasons 1950–51 through 2025–26, accessed 2026-10-09. Active-career totals are results to date through the latest completed season in the source.
Selected seasons
Era-centered impact
Both bars show the same NBA season. Missing or unqualified data does not establish a winner.
Jayson TatumJimmy Butler
Estimated points per 100 possessions above that season's league average
Striped bars mark seasons with fewer than 40 games. A dashed mark means that player had no season at the aligned point.