Luka Dončić
2025–26
NBA player comparison
Luka Dončić vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 2025–26 season
Regular-season verdict
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the higher model estimate for the 2025–26 season
This is a model estimate for the selected season. Its lineup adjustment also draws on earlier seasons; it is not a measurement of this season’s teammate improvement.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2025–26
Impact comparison
+3.8Season impactEstimated points per 100 possessions above that season's league average+5.1Leads
#6Season impact rank#2Leads
-0.20Estimated defensive impactSelected-season lineup estimate · points per 100 possessions+2.13Leads
+2.89Estimated offensive impactSelected-season lineup estimate · points per 100 possessions+4.76Leads
2.2%LeadsSteal rate2.0%
12.8%Turnover rateLower is better; compare alongside offensive workload8.7%Leads
38.1%Offensive usage33.4%
61.6%True shooting %66.5%Leads
40.5%LeadsAssist rateShare of teammates’ made shots assisted while on court35.0%
12.7%LeadsRebound rateShare of available rebounds collected while on court7.0%
64Games68
2,289Minutes2,259
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's estimated impact per 100 possessions was +5.1, compared with +3.8 for Luka Dončić. This compares their impact while playing, not their total contribution across the season. Both players are compared in the 2025–26 season using its published Impact Rate. A ranked comparison requires at least 450 minutes for each player.
Luka Dončić: 64 games and 2,289 minutes. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 68 games and 2,259 minutes. Playing time matters when judging the whole season; the impact estimate above is a rate, not a season total.
Luka Dončić ended a larger share of his team’s possessions, so the turnover rates are not an equal-workload comparison. Offensive usage measures the share of team plays a player ends with a shot, free throws, or a turnover while on the court—not every touch, pass, or act of playmaking. These rows provide context; they are not extra points added to the ranking.
Regular season only. Impact figures are estimates; small gaps are not exact. Playoffs, awards and titles do not determine the verdict.
Behind the estimate
Why the model rates them this way
The model starts with each player’s recorded individual stats, then adjusts that estimate using lineup results. The first two rows add up to the final estimate. All figures are points per 100 possessions.
Luka DončićMetricShai Gilgeous-Alexander
+3.75From recorded individual stats+4.21Leads
+0.02Adjustment from recent lineup results+0.90Leads
+3.76Final estimated impact+5.10Leads
Lineup evidence: Luka Dončić — 3 seasons; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — 3 seasons. This adjustment is not necessarily based on the selected season alone.
Offensive and defensive lineup estimates for the selected season
These selected-season estimates account for who played alongside and against each player. Positive means better than average; a positive defensive figure means fewer points allowed. They are separate estimates—not additional points added to the calculation above. They do not measure how much individual teammates improved.
Luka DončićMetricShai Gilgeous-Alexander
+2.89Adjusted offensive impact+4.76Leads
-0.20Adjusted defensive impact+2.13Leads
What this does not establish: these figures do not prove that either player made his teammates shoot better. A verified teammate-shooting comparison is unavailable for this selected season. A small difference in the estimates is not a decisive basketball distinction.
Full comparison · 2025–26 season
Understand the numbers
Start with impact, then compare playing time and skills. Team results add context. These are not categories to tally into a winner.
1 · Ranking evidence
Impact: who ranks higher, and why?
The impact estimate compares performance while playing, not total contribution over the season. The individual-stat estimate plus the lineup adjustment gives the final estimate.
| Metric | Luka Dončić | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Season impactEstimated points per 100 possessions above that season's league average | +3.8 | +5.1Better result for this metric. |
| Season impact rank | #6 | #2Better result for this metric. |
| From recorded individual stats | +3.75 | +4.21Better result for this metric. |
| Adjustment from recent lineup results | +0.02 | +0.90Better result for this metric. |
Luka Dončić: 3 seasons of lineup evidence. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3 seasons of lineup evidence. The adjustment is not necessarily based on this season alone.
Show more stats: Impact
| Metric | Luka Dončić | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Final estimated impact | +3.76 | +5.10Better result for this metric. |
2 · Playing time and responsibility
How much did each player take on?
Read games and minutes alongside impact. Offensive usage is the share of team plays a player ends with a shot, free throws, or a turnover while on court. More usage is not automatically better.
| Metric | Luka Dončić | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 64 | 68 |
| Minutes | 2,289 | 2,259 |
| Offensive usage | 38.1% | 33.4% |
3 · Individual skills
Where does each player have an advantage?
These figures describe the selected regular seasons. They provide context, not extra points added to the verdict. Green marks the better result for a metric, including lower turnover rates. Workload and shot-selection measures stay neutral. These rows are not votes toward the ranking.
Shooting
True shooting includes two-pointers, three-pointers, and free throws.
| Metric | Luka Dončić | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| True shooting percentage | 61.6% | 66.5%Better result for this metric. |
Show more stats: Shooting
| Metric | Luka Dončić | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Field-goal percentage | 47.6% | 55.3%Better result for this metric. |
| Three-point percentage | 36.6% | 38.6%Better result for this metric. |
| Free-throw percentage | 78.0% | 87.9%Better result for this metric. |
| Three-point attempt rateShare of field-goal attempts taken from three; describes shot selection, not quality | 47.6% | 22.6% |
Passing
Assist rate is the share of teammates’ made shots assisted while the player is on court. Read turnovers alongside offensive workload; lower turnover rate is generally better.
| Metric | Luka Dončić | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Assist rateShare of teammates’ made shots assisted while on court | 40.5%Better result for this metric. | 35.0% |
| Assists per game | 8.3Better result for this metric. | 6.6 |
Show more stats: Passing
| Metric | Luka Dončić | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover rateLower is better; compare alongside offensive workload | 12.8% | 8.7%Better result for this metric. |
Rebounding
Rebound rate is the share of available rebounds collected while on court.
| Metric | Luka Dončić | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Rebound rateShare of available rebounds collected while on court | 12.7%Better result for this metric. | 7.0% |
| Rebounds per game | 7.7Better result for this metric. | 4.3 |
Defense
Steals and blocks describe only part of defense. They do not capture every stop, rotation, or matchup.
| Metric | Luka Dončić | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Steal rate | 2.2%Better result for this metric. | 2.0% |
Show more stats: Defense
| Metric | Luka Dončić | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Block rateShare of opponents’ two-point attempts blocked while on court | 1.4% | 2.3%Better result for this metric. |
Scoring
Points per game describe scoring volume, not overall impact.
| Metric | Luka Dončić | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.5Better result for this metric. | 31.1 |
4 · Team context, not ranking inputs
What happened with and without them?
A verified with/without comparison is unavailable for this scope. We do not substitute another season’s observations.
Selected-season adjusted lineup estimates
These account for who played alongside and against each player. Positive defense means fewer points allowed. They are separate from the observed results and are not additional points added to the model calculation.
| Metric | Luka Dončić | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted offensive impact | +2.89 | +4.76Better result for this metric. |
| Adjusted defensive impact | -0.20 | +2.13Better result for this metric. |
Four separate questions
Impact, winning, playoffs, and awards
These are different ways to understand a career. Only Regular Season Impact determines the hussEyquation verdict. The other three sections add basketball context without adding points or changing the rank.
Career to date. At least one player is active. Every total below stops after the latest completed season in this data; nothing is projected.
Regular Season Impact
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the higher model estimate for the 2025–26 season.
Luka DončićMetricShai Gilgeous-Alexander
+3.8Season impactEstimated points per 100 possessions above that season's league average+5.1Leads
#6Season impact rank#2Leads
This is the ranking result. It uses regular-season impact only. Team records, playoffs, and awards do not change it.
Team Success
The advantages are split across the available measures.
Luka DončićMetricShai Gilgeous-Alexander
400LeadsListed-team regular-season wins367
55.5%Listed-team winning percentage57.7%Leads
4Leads50-win team seasons3
060-win team seasons2Leads
6LeadsPlayoff team seasons5
Context only. Not included in Career Impact Rank. Final records for every listed team-season. A traded season can include more than one team.
Playoff Résumé
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads every available measure below.
Luka DončićMetricShai Gilgeous-Alexander
5Playoff appearances5
55Playoff games61Leads
28Team playoff wins38Leads
1Finals appearances1
0Championships1Leads
Context only. Not included in Career Impact Rank. Team playoff results count only seasons when the player appeared in a playoff game.
Awards
The advantages are split across the available measures.
Luka DončićMetricShai Gilgeous-Alexander
6LeadsAll-Star4
0MVP2Leads
6LeadsAll-NBA4
0All-Defense0
0DPOY0
1LeadsRookie of the Year0
Context only. Not included in Career Impact Rank. Major regular-season honors are recognition, not inputs to the impact ranking.
How each context field is counted
- Listed-team regular-season wins
- The sum of each listed team's final wins in every season the player represented that team.
- Listed-team winning percentage
- Those team wins divided by those teams' total regular-season games.
- 50- and 60-win team seasons
- Listed team-seasons that finished with at least 50 or 60 wins. Shortened seasons are not projected to 82 games.
- Team seasons reaching playoffs
- Listed team-seasons in which that team qualified for the playoffs.
- Playoff appearances and games
- Postseasons and games in which the player appeared.
- Team playoff wins
- Team wins from those postseasons. They describe team results, not individual credit.
- Finals appearances and championships
- Seasons when the player appeared in the playoffs for the finalist or champion.
- Awards
- Recorded NBA selections and major regular-season honors. A zero means the source records none; Not available means the source field is missing.
Source and scope Basketball Reference, NBA seasons 1950–51 through 2025–26, accessed 2026-10-09. Active-career totals are results to date through the latest completed season in the source.
Selected seasons
Era-centered impact
Both bars show the same NBA season. Missing or unqualified data does not establish a winner.
Luka DončićShai Gilgeous-Alexander
Estimated points per 100 possessions above that season's league average