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NBA player comparison

Who was better: Tim Duncan or Shaquille O'Neal?

O'Neal reached the more overwhelming offensive peak; Duncan sustained elite two-way value with unusual consistency. The season-by-season view shows how those career shapes differ.

hussEyquationCareer comparison
Illustrated portrait of NBA player Tim Duncan

Tim Duncan

1997–98 to 2015–16

19 seasons · 1997–98 to 2015–16
10 best seasonsAverages from ten best seasons10 best seasons
55.6%True shooting58.4%
18.8%Rebound rate17.8%
17.5%Assist rate15.5%
1.1%Steal rate0.9%
4.6%Block rate4.7%
11.8%Turnover rate10.7%
What hussEyquation concludes
#30Career Impact RankPeak-weighted regular-season rank#15
+7.7Peak era-centered impactEstimated points per 100 possessions above that season's league average+9.7
4.2Best 5 seasons · avg. league rank2.4
5.7Best 10 seasons · avg. league rank4.4
0Seasons ranked No. 12

The story: Shaquille O'Neal ranks higher because his best regular seasons were stronger. Points, rebounds, and assists tell only part of the story. hussEyquation estimates how much a player helped his team while he was on the court. Shaquille O'Neal's best season was estimated at +9.7 points per 100 possessions above league average. Tim Duncan's best season was +7.7. Across their best three, five, and ten seasons, Shaquille O'Neal's average league places were 1.3, 2.4, and 4.4. Tim Duncan's were 3.3, 4.2, and 5.7. A place closer to No. 1 is better.

Career Impact Rank compares entire regular-season careers across NBA history. It looks at where each player ranked in his best three, five, and ten seasons, giving the most weight to his very best years. Playoff results, awards, and championships do not affect it.

Career comparison · hussEyquation verdict

Shaquille O'Neal ranks higher in career impact

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Why this verdict

Shaquille O'Neal ranks higher because his best regular seasons were stronger. Points, rebounds, and assists tell only part of the story. hussEyquation estimates how much a player helped his team while he was on the court. Shaquille O'Neal's best season was estimated at +9.7 points per 100 possessions above league average. Tim Duncan's best season was +7.7. Across their best three, five, and ten seasons, Shaquille O'Neal's average league places were 1.3, 2.4, and 4.4. Tim Duncan's were 3.3, 4.2, and 5.7. A place closer to No. 1 is better.

Full comparison

All the numbers

Category leaders are highlighted. Only hussEyquation measures determine the verdict; awards remain context.

Model inputs

What the model sees

Average input rates across each player's ten best impact seasons.

55.6%True shooting58.4%
18.8%Rebound rate17.8%
17.5%Assist rate15.5%
1.1%Steal rate0.9%
4.6%Block rate4.7%
11.8%Turnover rate10.7%
Values compare Tim Duncan with Shaquille O'Neal.

These are each player's averages across up to ten best seasons. Career Impact Rank gives the Best 3, Best 5, and Best 10 average league finishes 50%, 30%, and 20% window weights, giving the most weight to the highest peak. The model accounts for position, role, pace, playing time, and team results.

Model results

What hussEyquation concludes

Era-centered impact, sustained excellence and career value.

#30Career Impact RankPeak-weighted regular-season rank#15
#15Points-above-replacement rankAll-time rank in estimated regular-season points above replacement#25
+7.7Peak era-centered impactEstimated points per 100 possessions above that season's league average+9.7
+7.2Best 3 average impact+8.4
+7.0Best 5 average impact+7.9
+6.1Best 10 average impact+6.8
+6,394 ptsEstimated points above replacementRegular season · fixed -2.0 replacement baseline · higher is better+5,683 pts
3.3Best 3 average finish1.3
4.2Best 5 average finish2.4
5.7Best 10 average finish4.4
0Seasons ranked No. 12
4Top-five impact seasons8
10Top-ten impact seasons10
Values compare Tim Duncan with Shaquille O'Neal.

Box score

Traditional stats

Scoring, efficiency and all-around production.

1,392Games1,207
47,368Minutes41,918
19.0PPG23.7
10.8RPG10.9
3.0APG2.5
55.1%TS%58.6%
50.6%FG%58.2%
17.9%3P%4.5%
69.6%FT%52.7%
Values compare Tim Duncan with Shaquille O'Neal.

Résumé

Awards and honors

Context only; these are not model inputs.

15All-Star15
2MVP1
15All-NBA14
15All-Defense3
0DPOY0
1Rookie of the Year1
Values compare Tim Duncan with Shaquille O'Neal.

Career shape

Impact by season

Career mode aligns season one with season one.